Si nos vamos a las estadísticas, todos los años hay probabilidad. Lo interesante, para los que nos interesa el clima y la meteorología (aunque no seamos profesionales) es saber que "tipo" de inviernos han sido los que han traído nevadas. Son básicamente 3 tipos de invierno en Monterrey (al menos, hasta donde se). Los inviernos donde ésta el fenómeno de "El Niño", "La Niña", y los inviernos donde no está presente ninguno de los dos (o neutrales).Los inviernos en los que está El Niño normalmente son inviernos fríos y lluviosos en Monterrey y la región alrededor. Cuando está La Niña pasa justo lo contrario, así fueron los últimos dos inviernos. Cuando el invierno es neutral, no se puede predecir tan fácilmente como nos va a tocar de frío y de lluvia. Ahorita El Niño está presente y el Servicio Meteorológico de EU (NOAA) espera que siga así éste invierno. Hoy 15 de octubre sacaron su pronóstico para EU en éste invierno, y estando nosotros a 200 kilómetros del sur de Texas supongo que ha de ser lo mismo que lo que se espera en el sur de ese estado. Cuando actualicen en un mes su pronóstico de invierno cambio las imágenes:
Pueden ver las imágenes del NOAA junto con la noticia aquí.
Lo mismo creo yo que aplicaría a Monterrey con los del Accuweather:
¿Como nos ha ido en Monterrey con los últimos inviernos de El Niño?
Invierno 1997-1998, 12 de diciembre del 97: Nevó en Monterrey, no había cámaras digitales.
Invierno 2004-2005, 24 de diciembre del 04: Perdí las fotos, pero volvió a nevar. Lo que quedó de nieve en los carros y plantas se derritió la mañana de Navidad, cuando salió el sol.
Invierno 2006-2007, 16 de enero del 2007, nevó en Chipinque:
Volviendo a la pregunta del título, es probable que caiga nieve, aunque creo que lo más probable es que solo sea en zonas más altas como en Chipinque, posiblemente en Valle de San Angel, el cuarto sector de Cumbres y Villa Montaña, de al menos dos heladas no nos escapamos en esas colonias. Si no nos toca éste invierno, creo que en el invierno 2011-2012 nos toca. Ojalá me eqivoque.
Es la primera vez en que tanto el NOAA y el Accuweather pronostican un invierno frío, y coinciden. Al menos desde el invierno del 2004, en que ya tuvimos 2 inviernos fríos nunca coincidieron las dos fuentes. Con toda seguridad dicen los del Accuweather que esperan varias tormentas invernales que dejen hielo y/o nieve hasta Piedras Negras, San Antonio y Houston, según viene en el mapa que puse de ellos en la primer imagen. Cuando termine el invierno vamos a ver que tanto le atinaron ellos y que tanto un inexperto como yo le atinó. Algunas de éstas cosas las dije desde agosto, antes de que ellos hiceran ésta información oficial.
Aclarando que climatológicamente se considera al invierno como los tres meses más fríos del año, que son diciembre, enero y febrero en el hemisferio norte.
I woke up at 8:00 A.M. feeling hungry. As I opened the curtain I saw a purple sky over the brown forest, the sun was about to rise. It was the middle of October and it was 57 degrees outside, quite warm for this time of the year, but this gave a perfect excuse to spend the day outdoors.
The kitchen table was ready half an hour later, it reminded me about the horn of abundance because there was a lot of food and plenty of options to choose from. The buttered bread had just come out of the oven and it was the best I ever tasted. I took some cottage cheese and a mix of dried cherries and blueberries along with a glass of grape juice. It was now the time to brush my teeth.
The sun was hanging low over the blue sky and there were no clouds in sight, I decided to wear summer clothes because the sun would compensate the cool morning air. The cabin was on the edge of the town in New England, next to the forest, and the main street was ten blocks away. Except for a few evergreen pine trees, most trees on the streets had yellow, orange or red leaves, fall foliage was at its peak.
Most houses had Halloween decorations, and except for the smiling and faceless pumpkins everything looked ugly and scary. It's cool to go as a kid on a chilly night and gather candy along with some friends, but is there a need to celebrate the evil? All of the orange and black along with fall colors look great, but how many kids in their right mind would like to be like evil witches or the devil? Perhaps it would be better if Halloween was simply a costume party, where you enjoy some free time with it at school (showing off your costume, eating sandwiches, having cokes and everyone sharing candy) and later on again with your friends at night I thought.
There were not too many people on Main Street, as most of them were inside stores. Fruit markets were full of pumpkins. I had some money, though I did not plan to spend it I enjoyed taking a look at most stores.
It was two thirty when I arrived back to the cabin, I was late for lunch but I wasn't hungry at that time. I was about to go back inside when I saw the forest behind the garden, it was beautiful. The trees had all shades of yellow, orange, and red, the sky had the deepest tone of blue. It was time to take some pictures, so I went inside the forest. After half an hour of walking west and taking nearly forty pictures I found a clearing that was about twenty yards wide, there were two swings in the middle. I remembered those days when I was little when I used to swing for several hours, it was fun. Temperature was now around 75°F and the sun was shining in the southern sky. As nobody was watching me, or so it seemed, I started swinging back and forth with all my strength. I felt happy to do it, but after a few minutes it turned windy. Chilly air was coming from the northwest and started to blow leaves in all directions, then I stopped daydreaming. Someday I'll see the fall foliage, not by myself I hope. Now I'm off to work, I'll be turning in the first chapter of my thesis tomorrow.
Picture from: http://www.thundercloud.net/premium-screensavers/preview/fall-foliage-preview.htm
